Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 1.308227 1.371343 1.436490 1.508901 1.587307 1.669831 1.763505
2025-10-26 1.210537 1.300393 1.396883 1.508763 1.635631 1.775888 1.943882
2025-11-02 1.144505 1.249588 1.365466 1.503799 1.665886 1.851632 2.083335
2025-11-09 1.084168 1.198203 1.326507 1.483151 1.671481 1.893630 2.180206
2025-11-16 1.034142 1.154356 1.291871 1.462947 1.673184 1.927466 2.265410
2025-11-23 1.001155 1.127843 1.275008 1.461351 1.695187 1.984973 2.381639
2025-11-30 0.977526 1.110688 1.267617 1.469684 1.728403 2.056750 2.519650
2025-12-07 0.944355 1.080219 1.242160 1.453482 1.728476 2.084342 2.598532
2025-12-14 0.909608 1.046276 1.210722 1.427733 1.714047 2.090815 2.647027
2025-12-21 0.883703 1.022149 1.190323 1.414788 1.715131 2.117258 2.724444
2025-12-28 0.871185 1.014059 1.189503 1.426748 1.749428 2.190358 2.874365
2026-01-04 0.853014 0.998096 1.177853 1.423596 1.762477 2.233675 2.982001
2026-01-11 0.840377 0.989199 1.175499 1.433430 1.794915 2.308037 3.146394
2026-01-18 0.823549 0.974379 1.164882 1.431551 1.810631 2.358728 3.277586
2026-01-25 0.806793 0.959035 1.152895 1.427034 1.821924 2.402872 3.401144
2026-02-01 0.785379 0.936956 1.131188 1.408032 1.810977 2.411981 3.465424
2026-02-08 0.765294 0.916061 1.110391 1.389428 1.799557 2.419323 3.526636
2026-02-15 0.752733 0.904721 1.102039 1.387958 1.813333 2.466754 3.662951
2026-02-22 0.744202 0.898447 1.100264 1.395632 1.840992 2.537744 3.849034
2026-03-01 0.727995 0.881468 1.083317 1.380707 1.833176 2.549905 3.924803
2026-03-08 0.709397 0.860855 1.060838 1.356972 1.810639 2.536170 3.948777
2026-03-15 0.695692 0.846557 1.046732 1.345031 1.805986 2.552156 4.032861
2026-03-22 0.690437 0.843572 1.048225 1.356064 1.837934 2.632311 4.255251